An MDN horserace analysis of the June 30 UNH Bay State Poll.

BOSTON — Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey is at her weakest polling point in over a year. Neither of her two Republican challengers is closing the gap yet — but the new UNH Bay State Poll shows one of them, Brian Shortsleeve, has considerably more room to move than the topline numbers suggest.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center's Bay State Poll, released June 30 and conducted June 18 to 23, shows former Abiomed CEO Michael Minogue leading former MBTA chief Brian Shortsleeve 46% to 15% in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Another 39% of likely Republican primary voters are undecided — more than double Shortsleeve's current share.

Minogue's lead crosses every internal Republican demographic. He carries 56% of self-identified conservatives. Nearly half of moderate Republicans — 49% — are still undecided. That moderate lane is open.

Favorability tells a different story

Where GOP primary voters actually have an opinion of Shortsleeve, they like him. Among likely Republican primary voters, Shortsleeve pulls a 35% favorable rating against just 5% unfavorable — a healthy net +30. The problem is the 29% who say they don't know enough about him yet to have an opinion at all. Minogue's net favorability among the same voters is +46, aided by a longer runway of paid introduction.

Minogue has refused to debate

Minogue has publicly declined to debate Shortsleeve before the September 1 primary, saying he intends to reserve his debate calendar for a general-election matchup against Healey. Shortsleeve has said he will debate Minogue "any time, any place." Massachusetts Democrats have themselves called on Minogue to stop ducking his own party's primary contest. As of this week, no primary debates are scheduled.

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That closes off the single cheapest way underfunded primary challengers have historically closed a name-recognition gap in Massachusetts — the free-media moment of a televised statewide debate. Every dollar of introduction Shortsleeve makes between now and September has to come from somewhere else.

What a Shortsleeve breakout looks like

The Republican primary is September 1. Eight weeks. Without debates on the schedule, Shortsleeve does not need to try to match Minogue on TV spending — nobody catches a $13.5 million self-funder on the airwaves. What he needs is cheap, high-conversion reach that hits primary voters where they already are.

The map for a low-budget primary challenger is under-utilized in this race:

The conservative talk-radio circuit. Howie Carr, Grace Curley, Jeff Kuhner and the WRKO lineup reach the exact voters who show up to a September GOP primary. That circuit moves numbers faster than any statewide TV buy and costs nothing to book.
Long-form sit-downs with the independent right-of-center digital press. Massachusetts has a growing independent right-of-center digital ecosystem — trusted local publishers, Substack writers, and X accounts with real reach among registered Republicans and right-leaning unenrolled voters. These are the outlets Minogue's paid TV cannot fully saturate — the audience that includes the 39% of Republicans still undecided and the moderate GOP voters, half of whom haven't picked. TV ads land in living rooms. Digital lands in their pockets. A candidate who buys real estate in the independent Boston-area right-of-center digital press can beat a $13.5 million self-funder to the eyeballs of the voters who still say they don't know him.
Partnerships with sympathetic local community accounts and creators. The right-leaning Boston-area accounts already framing local news to primary-voter audiences have follower bases that overlap directly with the electorate a Republican needs to reach.
Endorsements from MassGOP figures who have not aligned with Minogue. Those bring built-in reach into local party networks.

Shortsleeve has done pieces of this. His campaign has sat down with WBUR. He has done local TV. What the poll suggests he hasn't yet done at scale is stake out real estate in the independent Boston-area right-of-center digital press — the fastest, cheapest, most durable way for a candidate with $1 million raised to be introduced to the voters who still say they don't know him.

Even a wounded Healey is out of reach

Healey's job approval has fallen to 45% approve, 48% disapprove — net -3, her worst reading since November 2024. Only 66% of Democrats now approve, down from 75% in April.

She still leads both Republicans in head-to-head matchups conducted the same week:

Healey 51%, Minogue 32% — with independents breaking Healey 45-33.
Healey 50%, Shortsleeve 32% — with independents breaking Healey 42-34.

Shortsleeve runs roughly even with Minogue against Healey in November. The primary decides who carries the party's banner into that fight.

What the numbers mean

Eight weeks to September. Minogue is 31 points ahead in the primary. But 39% of Republicans haven't decided, moderate Republicans are unclaimed, and where voters have an opinion of Shortsleeve they like him almost seven to one. The gap is real. So is the path.

The UNH poll surveyed 709 Massachusetts residents online between June 18 and June 23. Overall margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. The Republican primary subsample was 176 voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 7.4 percentage points.

Minogue blowing past Shortsleeve 46 to 15 as Republican primary nears, according to new poll

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