BOSTON — Former Baker administration economic chief Mike Kennealy is opening the 2026 race with a commanding advantage among Republican primary voters, according to a new UMass poll— as the same survey shows Massachusetts residents sharply split on Governor Maura Healey’s leadership, calling her both a “strong leader” and “corrupt.”

Kennealy leads the GOP field with 44% support including leaners, far ahead of business executive and Army veteran Mike Minogue and Marine-turned-MBTA reform chief Brian Shortsleeve, who sit at 13% each. Another 27% remain undecided, underscoring both Kennealy’s early strength and the room for movement as the campaign season begins in earnest.

For Republicans, the data suggests voters may be gravitating toward executive experience and stability — a familiar pattern in a state that has historically favored pragmatic, managerial leadership from the center-right. Minogue and Shortsleeve, each with serious executive and public service credentials, are expected to expand their profiles as the race develops.

But the most striking findings may be on the Democratic side.

In voter-sentiment responses in the same poll, Healey received diametrically opposed labels — praised by some as a “strong leader” and “competent,” while others branded her “corrupt,” “weak,” and “incompetent.” The contradictory reactions reflect a growing divide in public perception as the state contends with rising costs, shelter-system strain, and stalled Beacon Hill priorities.

The picture is less ideological than emotional: confidence and frustration sitting side-by-side, often from the same electorate. It signals an unsettled political mood — and a warning that Healey’s image as a capable, steady executive is not unanimous.

Analysts emphasize it is still early, and Kennealy’s edge partly reflects name familiarity as voters tune in. Both Minogue and Shortsleeve have ample time to introduce themselves and test whether dissatisfaction with the current administration translates into appetite for a Republican alternative.

Still, the poll offers a clear early storyline: Republicans may be consolidating around a business-minded, serious-governance profile, while voters remain conflicted — and increasingly vocal — about whether Healey represents strength or mismanagement.

If these numbers hold, the 2026 race may turn on a simple question: do Massachusetts voters want continuity, or a return to the “competence first” ethic that has historically defined the state’s most successful governors?